2400 points may be a market bottom funds focus on inflation theme

As the second half of the businesses of the fund company investment strategy, Fund recently said, and the two previous inflation period stock index fell in the space, the current point in A further decline in stocks are relatively limited space, 2400 points may be a market bottom, choose weak cyclical industry in balance with the band a chance to become the consensus of the majority of the Fund.

(Http://) essence Securities Fund analyst-pupil said that back in the first half of 2008, a quarter of the drop off of funds for collective suffered a blow, but the "4 · 24" stamp to benefit under the rose also failed to help fund vision of red in the second quarter, in the first half of the respondents is not satisfactory, the Fund is to review their investment strategy in the second half.

Sinolink securities analyst Zhang Jian-analysis, in the long term A stock valuation level is relatively safe, but the inflation and economic growth for enterprise performance impact is not yet clear, the anticipated positive factors is difficult to quickly appear, stock index will stage still wandering in performance growth and policies and expectations, low-return feature still will continue, and this trend is bound to the Fund.

Optimistic macroeconomic unspeakable

Crude oil prices recently bear the brunt of the economic factors. Everbright baode letter fund company that, from this year's second quarter market performance, the most striking feature is the stamp duty shocks fade, the domestic stock market step global stock market's footsteps, basic is the International crude oil prices, oil price and kidnapping are obvious negative correlation. Especially in the oil prices broke through the $ 110, the global stock markets have obviously been pressed, the soaring crude oil prices will continue to stimulate global inflation levels.

While holding the "oil missing roof, unit see bottom" of the fund company there are views of Haiti Franklin fund company: impact on the global stock market performance and the most important factors of inflation is energy prices, which have two possibilities: the first one may be in the next three months, oil prices and inflation have peaked. China's macroeconomic austerity is relaxed, with a possible high inflation and economic contraction of fixed asset investment and consumption is likely to further growth. The second possibility is in the next three months, oil prices and inflation will continue to rise. Sustained rise in the expected price, increase the inventory is a rational choice, this will result in increased demand or supply reduction and further push up inflation.

Unlike when judging the crude oil prices peaked differences, CPI Index Fund for the downlink may have reached a consensus. To do this, said that although the fuguojijingongsi food prices caused the first wave of CPI value is over, but the price control gradually release the result in the transmission of PPI's second wave value will be appeared after August, will become disturbed secondary market trend.

Corporate profits are expected to decline

Fund report disclosure of same period is also listed on the six annual report focused announced period, fund companies on this judgment, the earnings are expected to decline.

China nature fund company represents a significant increase in the PPI is a listed company performance growth considerably behind major future performance depends on trends in PPI. The situation from the future results, performance of listed companies this year a significant decline in the growth rate is positive.

Earlier fuguojijingongsi on listed companies the statistics of a quarterly bulletin also confirmed, 1529 company when quarter net profit 2202.06 billion, compared with $ 1883.39 16.92% excluding the financial companies, the net profit the 1.94% decline. If the actual income tax deduction rate dropped this factor, the overall performance of listed companies in the growth rate will drop to only 6.06%.

However, dongwu fund companies on 2009 this indicator represents the relatively optimistic that this year the inflation peak in 2009 A share companies overall net profit growth rate may not appear in the first two rounds of inflation peak next year net profit negative growth in 2009, A share companies overall net profit is expected to appear 10% growth. Therefore, with the two previous inflation period stock index fell in the space, the current point in A further decline in stocks are relatively limited space. If you assume that policy and market bottom 20%, then 2400 points may be a market bottom.

The "double antioxidant", theme of the investment

Economic growth, accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth, inflation and economic downlink of varieties into various popular investment strategy of the Fund.

Guotaijijingongsi in its medium-term investment strategy report said that the second half of the year concerned were able to resist inflation of energy and resources such as oil, coal and potash, and was able to resist the economic downturn, and faster GDP growth related consumer and light assets, such as food and beverage, retail, pharmaceuticals, science, technology, telecommunications, telecommunications and other industries have higher investment value.

Meeting fengjinxin fund companies that are able to run win market, gain continuous ROI plate and industry will focus on new technology, government investment and consumption services these three aspects. Environmental protection, energy conservation and new energy, new technologies market holds tremendous return on investment; and government investment in railway, power grid construction and infrastructure, as well as livelihood in medicine, education, and other equally good, plate, particularly in government revenue surplus; although consumption growth rate short-term negative effects of wealth may appear to drop, but light assets, low power, high value-added services, is the long-awaited high-growth era to the next round of economic growth cycle arrival in gradually.

In addition to the "double antioxidant", the theme of investment is also a key strategy in the second half of the fund company.

The lack of integration opportunities in the market, the company proposes to fund guohai Franklin investment revaluation "resource and price reforms, consumer-driven and service upgrades, integration and State assets injection, industrial upgrading and technical innovation"

Themes of investment.

In addition, from industry configuration and selection of investments, Franklin fund company proposed maritime investors shy away from the following three categories: a variety of industry, cyclical varieties, such as machinery, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, real estate and other industries; second, the price control industry, petroleum, petrochemical and power industries remain cautious; third, on the River manufacturing cautious, River manufacturing subject to inflationary cost pressures, and the upper reaches of the macroeconomic austerity brought downstream demand slowing down pressure, double pressure, the presence of fall in corporate profits.