Paulson's black humor: World Stock Market Forecast.

<P> Who promises a good harvest may be Neat huh, the new U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson hot promotion, it seems that the full activation of the entire Goldman Sachs Group's sense of humor. .The occasion of the World Cup curtain went up, the financial giant released a pretentiously named "2006 FIFA World Cup economics," the study report, with the probabilistic model uniquely the fans a flicker. .</ P> <P> I have carefully read this work as long as 57 pages of Goldman Sachs, the results are striking. .Not so much a professional financial analysis, it is more bad football predictions. .In the full tone of the language of ridicule, the Goldman Sachs people to fully tap the potential of their spoof, and lost no time in showing off their pride in a mathematical foundation. .</ P> <P>, of course, so I really identified as black humor Goldman Sachs report is the subject of the report. .Professional analysis in a series of dazzling among the people of Goldman Sachs, a country's economy, population and other factors on the impact of the World Cup final destination, and as a major based on the fate of the 32 were predicted. .Clearly, this study did not have much economic significance, and if the results of the economic strength of the football game have a major impact, then the U.S. team deserved to be more popular than Brazil team; if the level of population size on the football has a key role ., then the Chinese team will not let Unspoken. .</ P> <P> as a disciple of economics, I am equally concerned about the economic impact of the World Cup. .In this regard, the media is not uncommon, but the content is mostly limited to the World Cup host country's economic balance of payments accounting, or tourism, retail and other business opportunities in related industries analysis. .Compared to the usual problems, I would also like to know the impact on the stock market is the World Cup, after all, since May, the international market has been update frequency, and the arrival of the World Cup is more complicated and confusing the market trends. .</ P> <P> issue toward the inexplicable interest in this alternative, I am on the network, "the World Cup, the stock market," began a blanket search and found victory on football, World Cup short-term ownership of the stock market .and long-term impact of the international academic community even 90 years from the last century, the study began, and in the modeling and use of the latest evidence of some basic theoretical tools, the experience obtained in many thought-provoking conclusion. .</ P> <P> will be applied to the 2006 academic understanding this, I think the World Cup This time the international market, impacts can be summarized as three. .</ P> <P> First, and most importantly, the short term, the volatility of international stock markets may be more intense. .Come to this conclusion and the application of behavioral finance solidarity. .Behavioral finance theory emphasizes that the psychological effect on the behavior of financial market participants an important role. .In fact, the market is not, as traditional economics assumes that the principal as "completely irrational", because of fluctuating mental by "animal instincts" the impact of the decision many of their actions "irrational", the mood is entirely possible with good and bad .to different behavior choices. .</ P> <P> the victory of the national team from the two channels to impose the potential impact of the main stock market: market players assume that because the national team victory in a good mood, then the optimism on the one hand they reduce the level of specific .risk sensitivity; the other hand, a good mood it makes it easier for them to accept a lower level of utility to meet a specific portfolio. .In other words, market players will win football games become more risk preferences, and more easily deal. .World Cup is a feast of football tournament in the form of any national team in many games in the win may have a negative, which means that 32 domestic stock market will go up and down in varying degrees, the World Cup to increase through the channels of Behavioral Finance .the overall volatility of the international market. .</ P> <P> Secondly, the performance of the World Cup could have potentially long-term development of States of the stock market. .In general, the football field will bring eye-catching performance of the overall improvement of the national morale, to some extent will increase a country's labor productivity, and thus to economic growth, a steady stream of an internal power transfer. .Market breadth of economic fundamentals as a "barometer" of economic growth will naturally occur with changes in the same direction. .This is the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, the commercial operation of the league very mature countries, the influence on the more important, after all, a lot of big clubs are listed companies, there are 26 teams as the UK stock market, .nature of these national football team's performance will give their "football plate" a tremendous impact. .</ P> <P> Finally, the World Cup, fatigue effects may be asymmetric to enlarge the stock market short-term trading risks. .Transfer of interest during the World Cup will undoubtedly bring the stock market is relatively indifferent, ordinary traders reward the ball is fatigue due to lazy investment management, which will bring the appropriate vigilance to relax the regulatory problem is likely to take advantage of speculative forces .action, which virtually enlarge the market risk. .For Asia, enjoy live mostly in the middle of the night, which virtually brought to a stock market trading day in Europe and America is more serious than fatigue. .For emerging markets in Asia, the World Cup, the short-term trading risks more can not be overlooked, while capital outflows from emerging markets in recent suspicious signs of risk factors further magnified. .China should also be aware of this. .(Author: International Finance, Fudan University, Department of) </ P> <P> Related articles: </ P> <P> Germany, Brazil won the World Cup team economists forecast income is the main reason </ P> <P> World Cup tickets .Service is a big scandal provoked robbing the poor to the rich indignation </ P> <P> World Cup: Enterprise, "singing" the media carnival </ P> <P> </ P> <P> the World Cup with the first step can make money investing .</ P> <P> World: $ 24 to $ 4,000,000,000 Nuggets myth </ P> <P> World Cup, when the global share of Chinese enterprises crazy feast </ P> <P> World Cup is like a printing press .Business giants competing gambling </ P>.