Red flag in the first half line assertions into large bull market is still early to

Stock reform remains a major impetus

Recalling the 998 points since Hu rebound roadmap, it is not difficult to see, mainly around the two main leads.

A low price is oversold stocks + industry recovery unit, including thermal power units, building materials and shares and recent technology unit; second, the unit into stocks. In 1100 points below are represented by small and medium-sized plate unit into expected shares above 1100 points in the Shanghai local unit, Sinopec, etc. as the representative of a line-indicator unit, etc.

However, from yesterday's side, Hu in half an hour driving force weipan, mainly from China Petrochemical Corporation and Shanghai local unit as the representative of the stock reform expected unit. They are not directly promote the index, but also the innovation unit into themes. Sinopec has on its petrochemical unit industry consolidation, with the expected stock reform, Shanghai local unit has a private placement, Orient to repurchase and many other subjects innovation expected, making the unit into increasingly attracting funds of "magnet".

Half year line is just technical meanings

Analysis of Hu over the past year's trend, has four and a half years on trial: the first was during the 2004 "9 · 14" market, on 24 September rushed half a year after the blockage fall line; second, 22 November 2004, also at the half-year high come down near the Red; the third is the month of March 2005 in the solar energy sector such as new efforts of bounces, was more than half of the year line support, but in the end because the cyclical stocks dropped and flew back without any results; fourth yesterday Hu in unit into plate, again jumped over the line.

From this point of view, representing over 120 trading days average cost of half a year, is indeed a significant technical resistance level. Therefore, the industry believes that the half-year line Hu is distinguishing market can rebound from dash to large level rebound market transformation of critical points.

However, technical analysis is derived from the past to the future, the core of the securities market is to buy in the future. In other words, the real run on A stock market trends have important implications, not the past, but the present and the future of forces, including market forces, including market forces, such as policy, industrial structure change listed company net profit fluctuation of power. But judging from the current market, future net profit fluctuation of power but is next the leading force in the market trend.

Rebound space increasingly narrow

Because of this, we think that A stock market rebounded since 998 point has become increasingly narrow space, optimistic that we can see 1250 points, namely April near high point; pessimistic that 1200 points. The reason is simple, with half of the annual report of the disclosure, the iron and steel, petrochemical, nonferrous metals, and many other industries represented companies showed net profits of the ring than has started to fall, which means that 2005 will be the culmination of the cyclical situation, if taking into account the current oil prices impact of conductive, listed company net profit variation curve will be detrimental to A stock market rebound in the market. Yesterday two city decline in the list, there are a large number of Fund to stocks if Yantai Wanhua, conch cement, Shanghai Automotive, power electric power, deep, such as energy, shenchiwan is confirmed.

We believe that, although A-share market yesterday and ran half the line, but not necessarily represents the reverse has come. Not only because of changes in the expected net profit, but also because G unit cannot become A-share market mainstream. A proverb says, "don't think to wear the vest that I did not know you." G unit of hype will increase as the share price and cooling, yesterday's G unit began to weaken showed. We suggest that investors in the current context of the operation idea is: bounced again to consider appropriate jiancang, lightly Daniel, even lightly large level reverse market.