Capital chain tightening real estate shares "foresee" significant decline.

Macroeconomic data in the first quarter after the announcement of April 16, the central bank for half an hour earlier than in the past by raising the deposit reserve ratio, which was widely interpreted as management's determination to curb inflation. .Analysts agreed that raising the deposit reserve ratio of funds of listed companies based only in the "theory" of the establishment, but did not improve the current market decline, it may be a weak negative amplification. .Real estate shares plummeted early this week may be the tightening of monetary policy to anticipate. .<P> (Http://) are Shanghai Securities researcher Yi Cai said, "The key is to look at the Chinese economy in 2008 is the 'soft landing' will still be the turning point, which can determine the valuation of listed companies is now Geometry." </ P .> <P align=center> bank spreads loss of 2.22 billion </ P> <P> because it is directly withdraw cash from banks, has been the deposit reserve ratio increase, the bank is considered to be the most affected sections. .</ P> <P> CSC analyst Min Hua She believes that raising the deposit reserve ratio on bank stocks actually have a negative impact. ."Bank money to buy all kinds of notes and bonds, interest earnings available 2% to 3%, the deposit reserve rate is 1.89%, the spread between the loss of profits arising from the banks." She .Min Hua said. .Since the beginning of this year, the bank's external card lending has been very tight line, and even part of the emergence of deflation. .So the money can only be used to purchase notes and bonds, earn interest income. .Data show that 3 at the end of this year, financial institutions and foreign currency loans increased year over 1.62 trillion yuan. .</ P> <P> general, that raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points each, equivalent to the commercial banks recovered from the 2000 billion yuan of liquidity. .This increased the deposit reserve ratio, which is equivalent also caused a total of 2.22 billion yuan commercial banks interest rate of about losses, allocated to each bank, little impact. .She Min Hua's view, raise the reserve ratio for small and medium line impact far greater than the big firms. .</ P> <P align=center> book value remained high </ P> <P> but compared to raising the deposit reserve ratio and the like affect the use of quantitative tools, Cai Yi are more worried about the Chinese economy can achieve a soft landing .the grounds that it would usher in the banking industry will determine the subversive "valuation reconstruction." .In the current round of adjustment, from the PE (price-earnings ratio), it seems really cheap bank shares now, and every family is only ten times earnings, not to mention a quarter or so beautiful. ."</ P> <P> Yi Cai are reminded investors of economic growth once the inflection point, then the PE valuation can not be established, required PB (book value) to reshape the valuation system," and now the international banking .PB generally only 2 times, and that the valuation of shares of Bank of China is obviously high. ."</ P> <P align=center> real estate shares slump" foresee "</ P> <P> real estate shares earlier this week appeared in some inexplicable slump, the day before the overall decline in the real estate sector up 8.7% .. World-based investment analyst Wang Limin that raising the deposit reserve ratio, so that part of the real estate stocks have plummeted to explain. </ P> <P> An Jiashi line a credit management department director Chen Xia pointed out that recent real estate funds .chain is already very tense. several real estate companies have been disclosed in the annual report of the net operating cash flows are negative, ranging from negative 40 billion yuan, 10.4 billion higher to negative, while their overall net cash flow is positive. .Net cash flow is the real estate business to fund-raising activities to maintain, this is the high dependence on bank real estate business dictates. due to the impact of national macro-control in 2007, the real estate industry volume decreased significantly, cash shortage, resulting in business .Net cash flow is negative, indicating that the pressure of their business already exists. </ P> <P> "The reserve ratio increase, commercial banks, monetary tightening again, and indicates that regulators on monetary policy is not tight .will be relaxed. ."Wang Limin think. Wang Limin said the advance party of soldiers to the real estate business as a cost-driven enterprises - including food and beverage, petrochemical, pharmaceutical and other companies, including many of the net operating cash flow negative, close to tight in the capital chain .the time limit, the central bank's behavior in 16 negative effects of these listed companies will be amplified. </ P>.