Bear market is not optimistic the second half of the overall stock market will come soon.

<P> On Friday and Saturday, the central bank held in Lanzhou on the work meeting. .Although the central bank's press release did not reveal too much information, but the central bank said recently that in the second half will further strengthen and improve liquidity management, with a reasonable open market operations, reserve ratio and other tools to maintain liquidity of the banking system at a reasonable .level. .This is the central bank in May, following the third time this year raised the reserve ratio again after the first time in 2 months after openly using the "reserve ratio." .</ P> <P> the central bank is now facing a dilemma of choice, decision-making should not only fall on the second half of the Bu Zhiyu fall too fast economic growth, but also the face of rising inflation expectations (estimated July CPI rise may be down .to 3.2% or more.) .This means that the introduction of the second half is likely to once again raised the reserve ratio, or slightly increase deposit rates and lending rates remain unchanged, because the restructuring of China's economy is in transition, a drastic increase in interest rates would not only hurt the real economy, but also increase .repayment of local government financing platform pressure, the use of other methods will have to tighten liquidity much more moderate. .</ P> <P> the first half of this year reached 4.36 trillion of credit, which accounted for 7.5 trillion yuan annual target number of 61.7%. .Set by the CBRC at the beginning of this year, the tempo of the four quarters 3:3:2:2, the current indicators of the progress of running too fast, because there are outside the banking system put 1.3 trillion in loans (such as housing loans, financing of corporate trust .), is restrained by the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been financing channels, which means that the second half of the credit, the remaining space with only the original plan of this part. .Can be expected, certainly less than the mobility of the second half of the first half. .</ P> <P> in the second half of the central bank may raise reserve ratio to fight inflation and shrinking liquidity situation, it would certainly affect the future of the stock market. .Not only that, from a limited lifting of the ban sale of shares of the circumstances, in September to 230.6 billion yuan, was 397 billion yuan in October, November will be jumped to 1.8654 trillion yuan, with the history of lifting the ban selling of shares not yet accumulated .chips, it is difficult to imagine by Shanghai's unilateral turnover of 100 billion to support the supply. .Moreover, PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) have fallen to the edge CBBC boundaries, then the second half of the performance of listed companies, such as banks, real estate, steel and other heavyweight stocks in the second half performance will face a great challenge, the decline in exports, fixed assets .investment will fall increasingly evident, it is likely the last for a month's strong rebound days are numbered. .</ P> <P> Although the central bank's annual working meeting of the second half extinguished the possibility of a drastic increase in interest rates, but also declared in the second half even tighter than the first half of liquidity, and stock market liquidity has .the case of reduced instead of increased, but also through November this year, such as the size of the important non-lifting of the ban Hom, A shares have to face increasingly rapid rate of new shares issued IPO, which undoubtedly also declared the second half of the overall positive market .can not be optimistic! As Vice Chairman of NPC into thinking committee said: "I do not think the bear market will soon be over." .I think the fundamentals, the financial side and the stock market cycle point of view, just round up the stock market rally, too early to say reverse! 【】 </ P>.