RMB revaluation: China long bull stock market situation will occur?.

<P> China's stock market, stock index is not the core indicators, capital deepening rate and the rate of securitization is the key. .For a long period of time, index will hover in a narrow range, while the rate of capital deepening rate of the securities will be increased dramatically. .</ P> <P> view of the rapid progress of internationalization of the RMB, the stock market compared to China and Japan to become the norm. .Appreciation of the yen and the Japanese 17 years of the great bull market of basic overlap, which is derived revaluation will occur in China long bull market of the conclusions. .</ P> <P> such a comparison is not correct. .</ P> <P> first sharp appreciation of the opportunities for small, due to domestic inflationary pressures and volatile economy, the RMB can be up or down. .In addition to more than 20,000 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, the rising yuan and no one can tell what the real reason. .</ P> <P> say the least, even if the RMB appreciation by a big margin, stock may not simultaneously increased significantly. .The premise of the securities market in China and Japan, the Chinese stock market has threshold, the depth of the securitization rate is based on capital and intentional result of the macroeconomic situation. .The Japanese stock market has no administrative barriers, the peak rate of Japanese securities in Japan to complete the process of modern industrialization, the flow of funds from the real economy, the result of the virtual market. .</ P> <P> exchange rate appreciation of the points in Japan before, during, according to a study on the Japanese stock market in the early and mid-enterprise valuation of the main results follow. .In 1973-1979, the Nikkei index of around 20 times price-earnings ratio is about the fundamental volatility, market valuation levels and not be promoted as the yen appreciation, the stock market up mainly by corporate earnings growth driven. .The depreciation of the yen to the 1980-1984 period, Japan's stock market valuation levels did not change significantly, stock in the earnings growth was driven by continued rising trend. .</ P> <P> rate of capital securities in Japan no longer be able to deepen when the performance of stock funds increased from the increased performance, and appears broad based pattern. .In the period 1985 -1987, the Japanese corporate earnings growth is not obvious, but the Nikkei index's price-earnings ratio of 20 times from the rapid increase to 70 times. .Japan's rate of increase of assets, and cross-shareholdings by Japanese companies received investment income to cover up the real economy in Japan near the end of the truth. .Once the market fell, the so-called investment earnings to be the emperor's new clothes. .</ P> <P> future rise of China's total market capitalization, stock will not rise substantially, which is asset securitization increased dramatically. .</ P> <P> most of the enterprises with capital of China thirst. .According to Mr. Zhang Jun, who studies show that the capital of China's economy increased significantly the density of the time really late in the 20th century, 80 and 90 years later. .China's economic reforms in the first 10 years, China's capital - labor ratio is the change in the basic growth rate of less obvious, but from the 20th century, the late 80s and early 90s began to accelerate. .Roughly 1989 through-1990 years seems to be a turning point in China's economic growth. .Especially in the heavy chemical industry in China in recent years the trend has accelerated the rise of capital intensity. .However, with the capital increased density, the marginal productivity of capital decrease will occur, thereby reducing economic growth..