Li Yining: Do not mention fried junk stock market stability stamp benefit.

: Http:// News, Li Yining: honorary president of Peking University Guanghua School of Management, the Standing Committee of CPPCC, the CPPCC National Committee vice chairman of the Economic Commission, is the earliest scholars put forward the theory of joint-stock reform. .Stamp Tax will not affect the stock market fundamentals, but will suppress speculation. .China's stock market sentiment is not lost, capital gains tax impact on the stock market too much, I do not advocate the adoption of such violent means. .Should be invited by the Guangzhou Municipal Party Committee Propaganda Department, the famous economist Li Yining afternoon Yibo hospital in Guangzhou began to speak to the public, "China's sustainable social and economic development of several problems," he said in a media interview yesterday, said that China's bullish stock market .situation has not changed, but the bull market can not become a mad cow. .Government hopes to raise the stamp duty and more speculative investment in less favorable market stability: Recently the Ministry of Finance to improve the impact of stamp duty on the stock market, how do you view China's stock market? .Li Yining: This question to two aspects, one, the Government hopes to invest more and less speculation. .I think the stamp duty increase does not actually affect the stock market's fundamentals, speculative behavior would inhibit. .Medium to long term, the stock market is a relatively conservative investment approach. .But too fast, too frequently changing hands on the stock market is actually detrimental to the development. .I think this rise in stamp duty is that the government's macro control measures to keep the stock market in the long-term stability. .Second, China's overall economic growth at a healthy development environment. .Some foreign newspapers is not about China, go there will be the case in 1929 (United States economic crisis)? .I do not. .The United States is a 1929 production of surplus countries, and optimistic about the current economic situation in China, in the development of a healthy environment. .But the rise in the stock market should be the wave, or call the rising spiral, so the speculative excess is harmful. .The stock market can not be expected to improve stability of the stamp duty must remain outside the government has to do two things Reporter: What kind of stock market drop to a degree? .Li Yining: The stock market, many problems can not be expected, but one thing, the stock market's stability must be maintained. .Raise the stamp duty is not to suppress, was to curb speculation. .To smooth the stock market development, government, people, shareholders are the most beneficial, we all want a smooth development. .In this case, the Government should do two other things: first, to strengthen supervision, prevent fraud, insider trading. .Popularity can not lose, lose confidence in the stock market is because of fraud, insider trading. .Second, we should put the risk of investment for shareholders on the important position of education, many investors in the past did not experience the volatility of the stock market, so the sense of risk is relatively small. .Economists and various types of organizations not to publicize certain investors to mortgage the house into the stock market behavior. .Simple sentence: do not put eggs in one basket. .I do not advocate the adoption of such violent means the impact of capital gains tax on the stock market too much press: the news and calls for stamp duty and also pay raise capital gains tax, how do you see this? .Li Yining: China's stock market had just recovery, we hope to steadily develop the stock market. .The impact of capital gains tax on the stock market too much, I do not advocate the adoption of such violent means, which impact on the stock market too much, and few foreign countries use this means. .I do not agree with national stocks of view, and this is the language with the artistic, rather than the language of economics. .It should be said, a lot of people concerned about the stock market, stock market, this is a good thing, this is the best opportunity to spread knowledge of securities markets. .Do not become mad cow bull market bull market turned bear market there are three major reasons Reporter: Under what circumstances will a shift in China's bull market? .Li Yining: From the bull into a bear market for three reasons: first, the whole economy in a state of decline, the bull market will turn bearish, but China does not appear the situation. .Second, the loss of popularity. .Loss of popularity is because of the government's loss of confidence, especially for regulators lost confidence, too much fraud, shady too much. .Will not lose confidence in the government, but regulators are not effective, then popularity is also something that can not be lost. .Third, the international transfer of. .U.S. stocks fall in the year to Europe, Japan, this is also possible in the future, but China will not. .Because of China's stock market and international links is relatively small, would be affected but not great. .We should have confidence in China's bull market, but the bull market should not become mad cow, mad cow on the poor control. .Predict which stocks to rise, financial experts may be better at than me not to exploit low-quality junk stocks Reporter: Can you predict the stock market? .Li Yining: Economists do not predict the short-term stock market, but the trend of the economy. .Economic circles, the ability to predict the stock market, there are two diametrically opposed views. .Can be analyzed based on individual stocks, the stock market can be predicted that the short-term and long-term unpredictability. .Another view is that the macroeconomic cycle fluctuations can be predicted, so the stock market can predict the long-term, short-term unpredictable. .My own view is that the stock market difficult to predict long-term, short-term stock market is not easy to predict. .After a week like how the stock market, it is difficult to say. .In my opinion, the market is still good. .But the stock market must have a sense of risk, investors not to stir up some poor quality junk stocks, this is speculation. .And specific to the analysis and forecast what stock to rise, financial experts may be better at than I am. .Exit the stock market funds can also be re-entry, into the property market is not easy out if the stock will not lead to skyrocketing housing prices plunge Reporter: It is said that it will lead to stock collapse Golden pulled into the property market, which will lead to large price .rising commodity prices and even the ordinary? .Li Yining: I think there is not much relationship between the two. .Because the funds are generally not too much retail, and property investment needs huge investments. .The stock market has changed, it will cause some money out, but you can re-enter. .If you go in the property market, is not easy to come out. .As for why house prices rise? .Mainly demand is greater than supply, it is market forces at work. .So to curb housing prices, it is necessary to do both from the supply and demand. .Government must step up the construction of low-rent housing. .Does not matter if the property market bubble and economic life, there will always be bubbles, the main question is how much foam. .Affordable housing can play a certain role, from a practical point of view there is a very big problem is the regulation, supervision can not be used for speculation, it must be used to strengthen the supervision of publicity, etc. to ensure that these houses are .supply conditions of the people together. .But people are not holding money to be voted Chibidaigou investment loss in the state of civil Reporter: so hot stock and capital surplus of about, how do you view the problem of mobility of capital? .Li Yining: excessive money supply is actually three reasons: First, the investment side heat. .Second, large foreign exchange reserves. .Third, people feel the bank deposit interest rates too low. .Surplus of capital is too much hot money, mainly for two reasons: The first reason is to wait for appreciation of the RMB, foreign investment continued to enter. .The second reason is the investment of private capital can not find a reasonable way out not Chibidaigou people, but to be cast macro news, investment in private practice in a helpless state. .Do not pin their hopes on a distorted appreciation of the RMB exchange rate RMB slightly more good than harm Reporter: RMB appreciation is a hot spot, is also the focus of Sino-US economic dialogue, how do you view this issue? .Li Yining: RMB appreciation on China's large enterprises, factories, farmers are bad, but in general, the appreciation of the renminbi is now slightly more good than harm. .United States requires us to step appreciation of the renminbi, but the bit where was it? .Because, according to a method of purchasing power parity, interest rate evaluation is also a way to calculate the exchange rate, so we have a slight appreciation. .One is the appreciation of the renminbi on the export of negative, and second, a slight appreciation of the RMB, foreign investment in the sidelines now, so hot money will continue to flow into China. .Appreciation of the renminbi interest where are they? .The biggest benefit is that the yuan's appreciation for China's enterprises, especially exporters to bring a warning: can no longer pin their hopes on the distorted exchange rate, you have to step up the time to reduce costs, technological innovation, brand building, strengthening .management, this is the business based on long-term way. .Growth Enterprise Market conditions are ripe to launch high-quality listed companies can stay in the country the best news: the settlement of investment channels, increasing the supply of the stock market is a content, what are your views on this? .Li Yining: Growth Enterprise Market conditions are ripe to be launched. .Because the GEM high-tech development of China, to encourage independent innovation of enterprises, encouraging their own businesses is good. .Second, to establish a multi-level capital market system, including property rights, non-listed shares of the company's share transfer. .Third, a few years I have been mentioned, the quality of listed companies is best to stay in the country. .On the one hand, China is not a lack of foreign exchange, on the one hand, we can share to the shares of the company's profit, while, on the stability of the domestic stock market is good. .Downsizing does not necessarily prove that the actual situation of excess capital efficiency, financing, employment is difficult to work together to solve Reporter: How do domestic capital surplus on the one hand, on the other hand the problem of surplus labor still exist? .Li Yining: It really is a problem, I am opposed to the practice of downsizing for efficiency, a macroeconomic viewpoint, human resources, and that is that idle waste of resources, loss. .From the micro, said attrition efficiency can also still a problem, downsizing does not necessarily prove actual efficiency. .I think that the surplus of capital, financing, employment difficult problems can be combined together to solve. .There are three ways to solve the employment problem: enterprises to expand production, their own business, job transfer. .Government should develop the private economy, to encourage their own business to make a variety of investment channels. .I survey in the Northeast and the Northwest and found employment, three difficulties: First, the problem is not their own business idea, some people have to open your own shop so that is not a normal job. .Second, the financing of the guarantee, guaranteed issue small loans to each other without a sound system and so on UNPROFOR. .Third is the lack of technology, no technology is difficult to job transfer, should be strengthened and re-employment skills training..