Thursday, March 3, 2011
Source of China's stock market fell behind the recent.
<P> After a round of rapid rise in prices after the recent wave of Chinese stock markets have a more significant decrease in market. .China stock market fell normal? .How should we view the current stock market decline? .For readers this question, Deputy Director of Finance and Trade Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences He Dexu author analysis pointed out that the ups and downs of the stock market ups and downs are normal, nothing surprising, but fell behind in the current round of stock market, has deeper roots. .</ P> <P> First, the U.S. economic slowdown and the impact of successive interest rate increase, the global economic contraction signal is increasingly obvious. .</ P> <P> strong growth through the first quarter, the U.S. economy began to cool down in the second quarter. .The continuous interest rate, the U.S. federal funds rate has reached its highest level in five years. .Interest rate increase the inhibitory effect on the economy becomes increasingly obvious, clear signs of economic slowdown. .In contrast, despite the euro zone, Britain and Japan and Asian emerging market economies, economic growth is good, but by the wave of U.S. interest rates and the impact of higher oil prices, out of concern about inflation, central banks have begun to .tightening of monetary policy. .</ P> <P> Second, global economic and financial integration in the context of national stock market linkage effects are becoming evident. .</ P> <P> from the global stock market performance, the recent stock market decline is not only the Chinese one. .In fact, by the economic crunch and oil prices hit a new high-impact, coupled with investor expectations for consecutive rate hike, starting from May, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, the London index to the international market index .significant decrease in the beginning, especially the Nasdaq index fell the most obvious. .Linkage between the effects of global stock markets in the July 13 was most prominent, the same day both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are huge down there. .The international market, the day of the three major New York stock market indexes also fell sharply. .</ P> <P> Third, in China, in order to guard against overheating of the economy, the various means of macro-tightening began to strengthen, but also passed to the market a clear bearish signal. .</ P> <P> for the current rapid economic growth and investment in overheating problems, government departments have taken a series of regulatory measures - April, May and July, has issued a raise lending rates, issuance of central bank bills, .central bank bills issued orientation is prohibited bundled loans, and raise the statutory deposit reserve ratio and other measures. .Even the central bank announced that the financial institutions of RMB deposit reserve rate from July 5 to increase by 0.5 percentage points from the basis, from August 15 onwards, again outside the rural credit cooperatives except deposit-taking financial institutions raised the deposit reserve ratio .0.5 percentage points; August 19, the central bank again raised the benchmark deposit and lending interest rates. .In such a short time, the macro-tightening given the signal frequency, and is widely expected that this refusal will likely be further strengthened in the second half. .It is also to a large extent affected the investors expected. .</ P> <P> IV IPO market expansion and the acceleration of the frequency generated funds crowding, affordability and market confidence of investors are facing a new test. .</ P> <P> work to the international online distribution as a symbol, since the share reform opened the curtain after the IPO, less than 3 months, A-share market has been allowed to issue 21 new shares, 14 IPOs have been .amount of money raised and plans to raise over 50 billion yuan. .IPO frequency was significantly accelerated, stocks a week bursts of five records played twice. .The impact of stock market expansion is twofold, although the long term, high-quality stock market listed company structure optimization and upgrading of help, and giving fresh impetus to the stock market, and promote the healthy development of the stock market; but in the short term, the introduction of .The IPO funds will be diverted secondary market, particularly those of large capitalization stocks listed on the market brought greater impact. .Has completed 13 online issue of new shares attracted a total of 11 million investors to participate in the subscription of new shares a single freeze of funds of up to 801 billion yuan total. .Despite the market decline can not be completely attributed to the expansion, but expansion of the market caused by the short-term impact no doubt is an objective reality. .</ P> <P> five, due to rapid increases in prices caused by the previous stage of the cumulative increase over the broader market, the market itself has to adjust the requirements. .</ P> <P> first half of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have had more than two months or more than 30% of the records, after a wave of short-term adjustment, coupled with the initial public offering price included in the index trading day factors .impact of a new high market index, the Shanghai market is the emergence of a continuous 11 Yangxian the stock market. .Technically, with the withdrawal of profit taking the previous stage, there will be a general decline after rally adjustment. .In addition, because the first half of the good market, many institutional investors to achieve profit target level, funds began to withdraw from the secondary market and move to purchase the market at relatively low risk to a certain extent, on the secondary market increased .financial pressure. .</ P> <P> He Dexu that, overall, the current round of stock prices on the factors mentioned above is a comprehensive response, so that this decline is within reasonable limits. .While investors want to see rising stock market, but must be recognized that relying solely on capital-driven market rally is the lack of a solid foundation. .</ P>.
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