Friday, April 8, 2011
Agricultural Bank of China's banking sector in transition, a break is a good thing.
<P> Agricultural Bank of China listing, wearing green shoes on the issue price reeling. .There early to cheer for the role of overseas distribution, the latter is purely face-saving projects. .</ P> <P> ABC is the symbol of the market break, it seems that ABC once the break, financial stocks will be defeated, and then affect the whole game to ink stock market, and ultimately to expand the capacity of capital markets, strategic decision Ta .. .</ P> <P> ABC's profitability and valuation is not a frame of reference other banks. .The current valuation of the financial sector in the history of the bottom of the region, it has been revealed semi-annual report of the Bank in the banking profit growth than expected. .If you really believe that the stock market value of the investment, why should firmly hold the issue price of guarding the Agricultural Bank of China. .Only one explanation, the bank has not disclosed the risks, and large enough to shake the risk of the bank at all. .</ P> <P> this argument does not hold. .China's economy from the shift from conventional economic emergency since the safety of bank credit unprecedented attention, the CBRC issued a guideline of three ways, and now move on to the silver letter in turn co-sheet assets of the table, blocking the bank balance sheet .inadequate provision of assets and risk vulnerability. .Bank of the market, reassuring bank's profit model has not changed, nor is King style corporate governance structure with a fundamental turn for the better, but by the strict monitoring, security is much better than prior to listing. .</ P> <P> bank valuation is not high mainly by two effects. .On the one hand the huge credit for the 2009 grant pay, this year the bank is to allow investors to pay for large-scale financing approach. .Diluted the original shareholders of large-scale financing income, how could a bank with high market valuation? </ P> <P> the other is to allow possible future bad debt provision for adequate security, so far, whether it is local .investment and financing platform for risk or the risk of falling house prices not yet reflected in the bank's balance sheet, we see only with the increase in total credit, the bank's non-performing asset ratio falling. .</ P> <P> parties well aware of the risks of banks. .Sheet risk, especially since the beginning of 2007 since the financial cooperation of silver letter banks to avoid credit monitoring services as the best means of silver this year in the first half believed financial products from 2.9 trillion yuan, far exceeding last year's 17,800 .billion total, and this year's line of credit, but 7.5 trillion yuan, silver letter of credit financing products quickly and evenly matched. .Sheet assets, the CBRC will be incorporated into the table, in general, representing an increase again this year raised the deposit reserve of 0.1%, the market will result in real interest rates rise, commercial banks may not be for long term adverse, short term .the risk of a price drop. .</ P> <P> Ye Hao, whether banks, large state-owned enterprises Ye Hao, investors who buy these listed companies compared with similar bond investors, they can not control the governance structure of listed companies and cash distributions, it will appear Shanghai Automotive .cash-rich finance billions of Guaixiang. .There is a natural defect governance structures of companies there is any discount in the past in the oil and other companies listed overseas, the discount reflected most vividly. .High prices in the domestic market, the premium the market is closed. .With the lesson, the current large-scale enterprises A shares and H shares listed on the basic synchronization does not occur "rather outsiders not with his family," the criticism..
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