Monday, April 25, 2011
Incentives or to trigger the five Chinese "liquidity black hole".
<P>: Http:// hearing, the five largest Chinese-style incentives may cause liquidity black holes: First, compared to a mature financial market, China's financial market is a very immature market, a number of structural problems make the domestic market .naturally has a strong liquidity characteristics of volatility; second, information on the volatility of financial market liquidity has affected more and more; the third, the market sensitivity of the convergence of risk management system to reduce the diversity of the market; fourth .excess liquidity caused by excessive growth in asset prices; Fifth, the "Chinese-style regulation," the administrative intervention on the market to make up and alternative adjustment mechanism. .</ P> <P> problem of excess liquidity is the current macroeconomic and financial operation of a hot topic. .While the central bank and other financial regulatory authorities to strengthen the regulation of excess liquidity issued a series of policy measures, but excess liquidity risk is still not effectively resolved. .Of course, we must not only focus on addressing the problem of excess domestic liquidity, but also must be fully alert and attention to excess liquidity may produce a black hole mobility problems to curb excess liquidity that could have many negative effects. .Zhe Yeshijinqi give the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, one of our Important Enlightenment. .</ P> <P> guard against a "liquidity black holes" </ P> <P> "liquidity black holes" by Avinash D. Persaud, and other foreign scholars, a concept, this concept refers to the financial markets in a short time .sudden loss of liquidity phenomenon. .When financial institutions engaged in market transactions, due to changes in the external environment, internal risk control and regulatory requirements, will appear at some point sell-off of financial products, while members of the trading portfolio with similar risk management objectives and .trading mentality, there will also be selling a lot of needs, this time the buyer the seller is not only the entire market, market liquidity suddenly disappears, is selling assets, selling prices continued to increase rapidly declines coexist liquidity conditions will deteriorate further, culminating in .liquid markets and institutions seem to be absorbed away in an instant, like the image of this phenomenon was known as "liquidity black hole." .</ P> <P> under the liquidity black hole theory, the diversity of financial markets is the core of liquidity, liquidity, the formation of black holes the diversity of the general financial markets are closely correlated with the size of the market there is no necessary relationship gradually. .Further analysis found that the diversity of financial markets and information and the diversification of the diversification behavior of market participants, trading tools, diversity, diversity of decision rules related to such factors. .</ P> <P> compare the current reality of China's economic and financial situation, causing a liquidity black hole is actually a lot of incentive to exist, and the excess liquidity caused by the some of the negative issues are likely to be causing a liquidity black hole .the fuse. .In this regard, we must be clear and understand the following five aspects. .</ P> <P> First, relative to a mature financial market, China's financial market is a very immature market, a number of structural problems naturally makes the domestic market with strong liquidity characteristics of volatility. .This is mainly reflected in: First, a single product structure and portfolio. .At present varieties of inter-bank market transactions are spot, market participants focused on the bond portfolio, lending, repurchase and other closed-end variety, and forwards, swaps, outright repo transactions and other derivatives .very light. .</ P> <P> Second, the main focus on a single bond market, bond market is currently the main commercial banks, commercial banks holdings proportion of total debt is about 75%, while insurance companies, fund companies and securities companies held .Some bonds are very rarely, not to the highest proportion of 10% or even less than 1%. .</ P> <P> Third, commercial banks, asset and liability structure of convergence, all commercial banks deposit and loan structure is almost the same. .Convergence in the structure, the lack of diversity in the market, once the accident occurs, they may want to take consistent action to avoid the risk, this "herding" will undoubtedly become a catalyst for generating liquidity black holes..
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