Thursday, December 30, 2010
2010 When will the stock market bullish? .How to usher in the real glory?.
<P> National Development and Reform Commission said recently: 3% annual CPI target control can be achieved. .There are experts believe: August CPI rose 3.5% due to the natural disaster, affected agricultural products due to inflationary pressure is not great. .Although the CPI is only 3.5%, as officials have spoken: Now in the moderate inflation period. .So in the case of moderate inflation, bullish stock market can do? </ P> <P> look at a set of data to know that the terrible China the issue of currency. .End of 2009, the GDP of 33.54 trillion size of 364.52 billion yuan in 1978, 92 times the size of GDP; M2 broad money supply over the same period in 1978 to 85.945 billion yuan from the end of 2009, growth in the 60.62 trillion yuan, 705 times; .Narrow money supply M1 in 1978 from 21.203 billion yuan, up by the end of 2009 to 22 trillion yuan to reach 1037-fold, significantly higher than the same period of GDP growth and commodity prices and the CPI. .In this case, the decline in purchasing power of money is not strange, so that the main reason causing the inflation in the currency of payment, the natural disaster caused by rising prices of agricultural products is a secondary factor. .</ P> <P> some people will ask, more than last year's currency, and why the stock market there is no improvement in it? Did last year, the central bank adopted the extremely loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy, but the money is primarily a variety of government investment .infrastructure projects and pushing up real estate as the representative of the asset bubble. .But the real money real economy has not been effective supply. .Rising prices and fell there was no causal relationship between the two, but the two results the same reason. .</ P> <P> The common reason is: our real economy is a problem. .Price increases that, because the company's ability to overcome rising raw material prices have been stretched to the limit, only passive adaptation to high-priced raw materials, and further reduce corporate profit margins. .Assuming the efficiency of our commercial enterprises is high, cash flow quickly, we do not have hair to stimulate economic growth so much money; if we are strong manufacturing enterprise technology, low energy consumption, high added value, we .also do not have to worry about rising raw material prices, as companies can tap the potential to dilute the cost increases. .Thus, inflation in the final analysis the real economy or are we out of the question, the central bank monetary policy adopted last year to stimulate the economy, but the passive reflection of these issues. .</ P> <P> the amount of the last days of the flow of the money supply and pushing up real estate prices of raw materials, the wrong incentives to the enterprise, making many companies covered in the hands of either resources or products, or to enter the real estate industry .Many companies that store, copy room or cover their sense of dry raw materials industry than they can obtain higher profits. .Enterprises active in the work of value creation recession, and the enthusiasm of R & D is not high, all low-interest credit through the shop and go to make a living Chaozuo outside the industry, but we need to know the value of the actual production and business activities can only be created ., and can not rely on copy floor, store, copy materials to create, so the inflation is not only a problem of excessive money supply, technological progress is the problem of declining capacity. .This is the fundamental destruction of the bull market..
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