China A-share is going to extremes risk market has become increasingly obvious roller coaster

The Central Bank statistics, September the new foreign exchange accounts, $ 2895 billion RMB, the foreign currency reserves increased 1050 billion, reaching a peak of ever. According to the "add new Exchange account section-trade surplus-actual foreign = hot money" calculation method for flowed into the Chinese market in September of hot money nearly 1200 billion, while the data in the month of August, was less than $ 60 billion. Data, China financial institutions foreign exchange accounts, commercial bank loans, foreign exchange new offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDF) show that foreign capital inflows of signals.

Another set of data after comparison. Third quarter resulted in a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, while the 1940 billion a quarter only 479 million, second quarter only for 72 million. At the same time, 1 ~ September actual trade surplus with only $ 1206, while net foreign reserves $ 2491, far beyond the actual trade of 1285 billion surplus in the background. In particular, into the third quarter, the growth rate of China's imports exceed exports, the actual trade surplus narrowed substantially, while foreign exchange reserves have increased substantially. This June 19 China restart basic synchronization after a time period, after the restart, the appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar has been 3%.

At the same time, the United States to adopt and maintain the quantitative easing policy; interest rate level in Japan are still increasing the intensity of the implementation of monetary policy easing, a continuous lowering of interest rates; Europe followed also has begun a new round of currency big launch, big investment. This allows to speculate as to the nature of international hot money in the US, Japan and Europe countries profitable speculative profits, chasing the hot money must aim at emerging market countries, the Asian currencies, in which China is the main destination.

Facts have proved that the profit for the purpose of short-term capital (hot money) are accelerating into China. Hot money into China may target area is the stock market, real estate, as well as large agricultural areas. From the concrete situation analysis, China property market regulation and sound tight, makes the hot money while also not dare to enter, it must aim at A stock market. A unit this year has been in adjustment, low stage, gaining momentum intention is clear, international hot money just touched the subject of this mental, to seize this opportunity to enter through a variety of ways. Recently, A unit has been a boom market, less than a month Hu from 2700 points madness around 3000 points to.

The skyrocketing prices without any fundamental support, is the international hot money caused by speculative short-term capital. This speculative characteristics of the market, a huge risk. International hot money to gamble the appreciation of the Renminbi, into the stock market is its incidental business, once reached its profit sites or changes in the exchange rate situation, rapid withdrawal from the market, must have A stock volatility, end up in the Chinese capital, in particular small and medium-sized investors. Speculative market risks, international hot money is behind the biggest speculative black risk, international hot money is A unit to the extreme risk. A unit in hot money Director, deductive roller coaster stock market characteristics has become increasingly obvious.