Long ago, Mr. Li Zhang 喆 wrote a best-seller of the stocks on the move ", which refers to the distribution unit, is when good concept to introduce. Today's market, investors are mostly will then financing as bad. Mr. Lee is wrong?, he said that the Chinese stock market for some time, the stock is the scarcity of resources, even the subscription card is also very valuable, so the placement of shares is positive. Today, the stock is no longer a scarcity of resources, unlimited refinancing was flooded, the results won't be the same.
Hot concepts "to dilute your"
An old saying goes, "Wu Yi XI Wei GUI", a lot is worthless. Looking back at the end of July to beginning of August the rebound in the market, G unit plate as hot hype is successful, because the unit into the pilot concept in its market or a scarcity of resources.
Yesterday, the market, Baosteel warrants (580000) trend also illustrates the problem. Baosteel JBT1 virtual opening price 0.688 element directly after the opening in the maximum $ 1.263 rose location, relative to the opening price or as high as 83.58%. In fact, Baosteel warrants opening price is according to the warrant valuation formula (I think B-S model) to determine the lower bound of the range of valuations, if the market in accordance with rational positioning, Baosteel warrant reasonable price should not be too far away from this location.
But the market is the market power of the speculation than theoretical formula more powerful. Baosteel warrants all scarcity concept, short term thrown in hot pursuit is normal. And do not say that this is the first ten years only traded warrants, but it is also currently on the market only a stock trading warrants, unless you're not interested in warrants, to do so, just do it.
Of course, this massive Bill always piled on the maximum price the position is not too good, I have a next to investors gave a seems to sound reasonable explanation: in addition to the original shareholders of Baosteel, other hands without the warrants, the market is not allowed to buy air or short sale, want to do warrant T + 0 person must first get a warrant.
Baosteel warrants yesterday it people really want, today (Tuesday) it will be difficult to present on this trend, we can imagine a huge shock.
See Baosteel warrants this situation, I suddenly had a hypothesis — assuming that market among them more than one only warrants, but also then dozens or hundreds only, Baosteel JBT1 yesterday will never open at such a high price.
Milk into the Mississippi River, the third reason
Last century, 30 's, in the Western economy, great depression, the milk is poured into the Mississippi River's story has been repeated reference textbooks. Unfortunately, there was a time before television coverage, also appeared in China's milk into the sewer.
The milk is poured into the Mississippi River, the first reason is clearly the milk production of too much more than the consumer demand; whereas the second reason is because the milk is not fresh, at the time of preservation more difficult; a third reason might only raise too cow people know, that is: even if you couldn't sell milk, milking the cow must also. So milk fell into the Mississippi River, but some things are not, have you seen the ore into the Mississippi River?
Finished the story of milk, in fact, I even want to say or share reform. Stock reform has now become a kind of speculation, as pilot units, often are able to add value.
But when the pilot ends, stock reform to enter the push phase, the concept has to be devalued — if that whole almost all of the stock market has a pilot concept, then this concept is actually not sought after.
Eye on the major shareholder: how to deal with in the hands of the equity
The sharp correction on Thursday in the second batch of pilot units at the end of the vote, you can be regarded as a market cleanup of floating discs can also be considered to be the next stage of short-term speculation target switch.
When pure speculation speculation for the concept of market came to an end, the market position of a unit or to comply with its reasonable valuation area. But now on stock valuations are somewhat more difficult, because you want the information asymmetry conditions on prejudging its unit package.
Yesterday, three G unit resumption of trading (G wide control, on the Harbour, G G Zheng-electricity), has lost its initial G unit that strong upward momentum. G on Hong Kong close 25.21%, is larger than 10 send 2.2 on price ratio, became the first resumption of the first day only is greater than the proportion of the price decline in stocks. This is the unit into a clear conceptual hype subsided.
In a future period, the market will be more reflected in turbulence and differentiation, so the market is difficult to fall deep site. So, market turmoil and differentiation is based on what? I think, based on the stock is a kind of commodity supply after the flood, when, first of all be tipped into the Mississippi River are those easy metamorphic cannot fresh milk. Texture good company a good consideration might be the icing on the cake, and some companies to price out more high, meaning was not large.
When the agenda full circulation, the future has a way to judge the quality of listed companies, that is, analysis — — know the actual situation of large shareholders how to deal with his own hands.
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