13 may, the State Council for the encouragement and guided private investment for the healthy development of the number of opinions "(hereinafter referred to as" new 36 "), following the 2005 launch of the" old 36 ", the Central Government once again to promote private investment and non-public economy development guiding documents, yesterday (July 26) and encourage private investment has released new rules for the implementation of article 36, launched.
"New 36" to encourage and guide the private capital into areas such as basic industry and infrastructure, public utilities and housing construction, social policy, financial services, Commerce, defense industry, participation in State-owned enterprise reform, etc.
Documents issued after the led to a number of bodies, their view of the "new 36" embodies our Government "tenure" structural adjustment pressure, is expected to become the third reform of landmark file, is a new reform phase begins. At the same time, the introduction of this document is to provide investors with a negative expected game basis, the market will change negative expected widening of panic.
Or as potential GDP growth contribution of 1%
24 March, held by the State Council Executive meeting, proposed the "encourage and guide the development of private investment," four policy measures. Only in just one and a half months after we launched specific fining of encouraging private investment "new 36".
Since 2009, investments into the economy picked up tempo stabilises the most important forces, government investment plays a key role. Dealing with the crisis period, the Government has made investments in the amount of sky fairly good results, but over time, the Government's investment of marginal utility is decreasing at the same time, the package of incentives of side effects is also becoming increasingly apparent, ultra high speed monetary and credit growth of inflation and asset price inflation pressure gradually increased. In addition, the Government uses a large number of public investment to resist the financial crisis, boost economy, also resulted in recent years, the most serious "State into people retreat" situation. To maintain economic growth momentum, the realization of the investment by the Government to private investors conversion becomes the driving force of the moment.
Publish research reports xiangcai securities that private investment areas of relaxation in favour of capital and labour in the economy range more efficient configuration, and drive productivity, investment deregulation has the potential to contribute to the potential growth rate of 1% of GDP. In fact, in contrast, private enterprises (hereinafter referred to as "enterprises") of the operational efficiency ratio of State enterprises (hereinafter referred to as the "SOE"). 2009 industrial added value growth, SOE 6.9% private enterprise is 18.7%; the total assets, private growth 20.1%, while only 14% growth in State-owned enterprises; and most importantly profit, total profits of private enterprises grew by 17.4% while reducing 4.5% State-owned enterprises.
Although no clear statistics, historical data and see a huge number of private capital. In 2006, the Central University of finance, national social science fund research group survey of Chinese civil finance, financial, and illegal financial's size, structure and other results indicate that the total amount of deposits and loans as measurable indicators, 2005 China Civil finance, financial, and illegal financial amount about 2.9 billion. The survey 27 provinces throughout the country, three sizes covers formal financing proportion of more than 30%.
As of the end of last year, China's monopoly in private enterprises to enter less than 20% of the over 80 industry, allowing entry of State-owned capital has 72, allowing the entry of foreign capital has 62, allow private capital into the only 41 of them.
CIC securities also believes that "new 36" introduced a system of modified beginning, future growth momentum of China's economy will come from a series of system improved the productivity of liberation. Private investors may invest into every new impetus to economic growth.
Policy "have tenure pressure" to clear
Huachuang securities to this publication's latest research report, in fact, in 2009 crisis response policy for the month of December last year, it has entered into definitive turning point, the basic policies for around structural adjustment. 2009 December 1 to last week's publication "new 36", 23 departments launched approximately 700 records policies, who, who, who has basically clearly encouraged.
The present publication policies, the policies of the main sectors are concentrated in three areas, namely the so-called overcapacity and environmental issues seriously, and the non-rational investment. Where excess industry, clearly classified as excess industry including iron and steel, cement, glass, coal chemical industry, polysilicon, wind power equipment, electrolytic aluminum, shipbuilding, soybean crush, large forgings, fertilizer nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer in.
Backward production capacity and protecting, huachuang securities that, since the eleventh five-year of the first four years, the decline in GDP energy consumption throughout the unit only 14.38% from 20% target is still a large gap, and the first quarter of the energy consumption of a rebound adjustment signs, so is likely to increase. Mainly concentrated in the electric power, ironmaking, steelmaking, electrolytic aluminum, iron, calcium carbide, coke, cement, glass, paper, alcohol, non-ferrous metals, light industry and other industries.
Rather than rational investment undoubtedly dominated by real estate industry. From a policy perspective, the content on the real estate of policy is not limited to real estate investment in fixed assets, and is focused on the concerns rising house prices too high, causing excessive expansion of the whole industry chain, fight against investment and speculative demand as the main objective, to structural adjustment (reversed higher house prices are actually went urbanisation, detrimental to the structural adjustment).
At the same time, policies to encourage industry has also clearly visible. In addition to last year's top ten industrial revitalization plan, the Government has introduced a number of incentives to promote economic change in direction to domestic demand and promote industrial upgrading. In May this year introduced before policies are also a number of fragmented industry policies such as trade and logistics, cultural, educational, and sports, medical, high-tech equipment, and the "new 36" further refine the policy encourage industry: public sector, health care, sports tourism, financial services
, Commerce, etc.Encourage industry awards recognize outstanding performance
Xiangcai securities thinks that the flow of private capital is more restricted, although the policy support, but several obstacles still exist. From the entry barriers, the monopoly in most capital-intensive industries, on the private capital requirements is higher. Therefore, it is expected that public utilities, media, the most obvious benefit of medical services, has entered the industry benefit from private companies.
CIC securities said that although it is difficult to see in the short term, the "new 36" on the real economy by stimulating role, but on low valuations (dynamic) cyclical industry is good for them to return to normal levels of valuation. The institution has the financial (insurance, banking and securities companies), coal, chemical, construction and engineering, mechanical engineering.
Although the "new 36" and encourage policies to the letter it will take some time, but recently these encourage industry performance, has been recognized by the market. From market watch, A stock market since the end of 2009 beginning to enter an adjustment period, stock index since the beginning of December last year in all the way to 3300 points around 2600, a decline of more than 20%, while the performance comparison of plate are mainly concentrated in the policy encourage industry, reflecting the markets have been willing to give them a higher premium.
Huachuang securities analysis, valuation, there seems to be no very good methods of valuation to emerging industries, these strong stocks may fall rapidly fill short term, and it is difficult to determine objectively speaking, decreased. However, a similar decline might be more understanding to purchase opportunities, therefore it is proposed to continue to focus on strategic do more business opportunities brought about by the invigorating falls. Standing in the structural adjustment of angle, China's economic restructuring will really made huge domestic demand to release, resulting in a great company.
From the perspective of the history, the United States in the 1980s began the transformation of the cultivation of a large number of companies of the world's influence, one of Microsoft's growth limit in 100 times, Wal-Mart is 60 times, Pfizer is 35 times, 2004 listing of Google's current record is 7 times. As the first round of China's successful technology companies, Baidu since 2005 data, up to 12 times, Tencent since 2004 's stock is up about 45 times.
Recommendations concern company
The securities code of securities hereinafter referred to as industry forecast ROE forecast EPS2010 EPS2011
000826 Saunders environment utilities 4.12 0.53 0.74
000690 baoxin energy utilities 20.76 0.28 0.36
000939 kaidi electric power utilities 12.10 0.62 0.64
300015 aier eye medical biological 12.8 0.49 0.67
600763 tongce medical biological 11.28 0.26 0.32
000919 Jinling pharmaceutical pharmaceutical biology 12.44 0.46 0.54
002292 Austrian flight animation light manufacturing 14.35 0.54 0.71
300027 huayi brothers information services 9.78 0.48 0.67
601999 publishing media information service 9.14 0.26 0.29
Dissemination of information service BOR 600880 22.67 0.57 0.67
300059 Oriental Fortune information services 30.93 0.77 1.06
600551 times publishing information services 12.18 0.66 0.72
600825 Xinhua media information service 11.61 0.29 0.32
002362 hanwang technology information services 42.23 1.33 1.89
002400 province wide shares information services 37.48 0.9 1.18
300058 blue cursor information services 25.39 0.91 1.24
For example:
Tongce medical:
Currently has 15 branch, located in Hangzhou, Ningbo, Quzhou city, Beijing, Cangzhou city, Huangshi, jiaxing city, Tangshan and Rui, Hangzhou has five. Estimate the company currently has about 600 dental chair. The company plans to focus on the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai economic rim and Pearl River Delta region continue to expand; also in other areas scatter layout in the next few years will be in Shanghai, Wuxi, Changzhou, Chengdu, Changsha continued extension of expansion. The company is in the process of mergers and acquisitions in the Wang Dong country has more than 100 stores in the chain of Yongkang oral, Yongkang oral is the second largest chain of oral health care services. Merger completion, will become the largest dental chain organization. In addition, Ye with Korea, the introduction of the medical group's cooperation with international medical management experience for investors.
Aier eye:
Aier eye is a private joint-stock ophthalmic medical chain organization, hospital of existing full-time ophthalmologists nearly 400, with high title doctor nearly 100, including a master instructor, tutor, PhD, postdoctoral, and American scholars and clinical core experts with rich experience. The Group has set up a batch of Ophthalmology-professional studies group and 1 family Eye Institute, the introduction of international advanced screening, treatment, research equipment, and Sun Yat-Sen eye Center, Donghua University, Taiwan University of Washington School of medicine, ophthalmology, a large number of domestic and foreign academic and medical institutions to build internationalized technology flat
Taiwan, aier eye is already in the national invest over a dozen specialized chain eye hospital, enterprise scale and influence gradually expanded. With the improvement of living standard, the teeth in the mouth, teeth and eye correction of vision correction, eye Healthcare has been or is becoming indispensable to everyday life more and more into the common people products, whether medical or aier eye tongce, this private listed in the share capital not big expansion capacity prominent industry worth the long-term concern that future development potential is huge! 【 】
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