Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Alternative financing crunch inspired copper bull market factors were tortured in China.
<P> ● finance imports of copper as a financial instrument on the market; its use is not for domestic consumption, and more are used to finance and arbitrage. .Many people in the industry frankly, because of the presence of copper, which makes a lot of international investors, "misreading" of the current demand from China. .</ P> <P> http:// hearing, according to recently, tens of thousands of tons of copper from the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses around the outflow. .Boats loaded with a cargo of copper exit Rotterdam, the Netherlands Busan, South Korea and other of the ports, quietly set sail, destination - China. .</ P> <P> "market focus appears to focus on copper demand in China will come up!" </ P> <P> "Chinese demand for copper futures markets demand very strong support." </ P> <P> ... .... ... ... </ P> <P> international investment banks are collectively sing copper market, "Chinese demand" in the world's largest consumer of copper - the United States into a quagmire of sub-prime, the world's last bull market in the copper .root "last straw" department in on China. .Seems to be true facts, the London Metal Exchange copper prices again broke through the $ 8,000, while the number of China's copper imports in January soared to 6%. .</ P> <P> strange thing is, with the strong trend of copper-lun, and a large copper imports to Hong Kong. .This year, China has been in the spot copper prices dragged down the price appears under stagflation. .</ P> <P> what kind of factors delaying the hind legs of copper in China? .Major investment bank repeated the mouth of the "China Story" in the end is true or false? .</ P> <P> journalists and domestic business and consumer of copper stock exchange business, understand that there is a domestic market, the industry's so-called "Financing of the Copper" exists. .And that, perhaps in part may explain the above questions. .</ P> <P> the industry, in the tightening policies, tightening of bank lending and appreciation of Renminbi against the backdrop of such "non-consumption of copper," as a financial instrument in the market; its use is not used .in domestic consumption, and more are used to finance and arbitrage. .Many people in the industry frankly, because of the presence of copper, which makes a lot of international investors, "misreading" of the current demand from China. .</ P> <P> Copper popular finance </ P> <P> "every time when banks have tightened monetary policy, there will be many companies to import so-called 'financing of copper', and then thrown on the market, .In this way part of the funds to be set. "stock company, a source," Many companies are using this method as an alternative to bank loans. "</ P> <P>" copper imports are financed feature, which is .well known in the industry. Over the past except for some real estate companies to use its financing, other people rarely treats it as a financing tool. "import and export business, another person briefed reporters," but since the end of monetary tightening .After a lot of need for funds and difficult to obtain loans from the bank business, we import and export enterprises to take the initiative to ask this, I hope we can help them import of copper, in order to achieve financial objectives. I had realized that the next market .may occur with the purpose of financing the import of copper, which does not represent the true demand for copper consumption in China! "</ P> <P> the business people also believe that, although it is difficult to statistics of the number of these financing of copper, but .Imports of copper from January a huge increase in perspective, in which finance the contribution of copper is not small. ."Because of the financing needs of enterprises are generally commissioned by the number of our imports are in thousands of tons of copper over. A company once imported less than 1,000 tons is virtually impossible." The source said. .</ P> <P> spot copper at the current 66,000 yuan per ton basis, the first imported 1,000 tons of copper, the company expects to have more than 6000 million financing funds. .</ P> <P> introduced, according to the market, financing the import of copper mainly in December last year, because at that time in London and Shanghai copper price ratio above 8.3, the import of copper will not lose money. .In general, from the point of LME warehouses in Asia import price of copper transport needs of the time 1 month; from other places you need to transport more than 2 months time. .Therefore, the first quarter of this year increased imports of copper would be much better. .</ P> <P> released in January from the latest customs data, in January this year, imports of copper and copper had reached 23.9 million tons, compared with December last year, an increase of 6%. .Last December imports of unwrought copper and copper volume of 224,500 tons, 223,700 tons compared with November's increase of only 0.36%. .Among them, in January China imported 158,100 tons of unwrought copper, an increase of 7.1% in December last year increased 19%. .Under normal circumstances, international investors copper imports are China's economic growth rate as a benchmark, in January this year, the import growth rate has far exceeded the rate of economic growth. .</ P> <P> At the same time, participation in the domestic spot copper trading enterprises are in favor of this "stock transfer" argument. .They believe that the domestic supply of copper spot indeed very abundant, "transfer" the main reason is to meet the financing needs of some enterprises, and arbitrage requirements. .</ P> <P> policy tightening triggered alternative financing </ P> <P> "Financing of Copper", by definition, is not entirely imported for domestic consumption and more for financing and arbitrage. .Tightening policy, imports of copper is usually used as an alternative to bank loan financing tools. .</ P> <P> market, due to the relatively large amount of copper price, the futures market to lock both domestic and foreign import risk and profits, so copper is more than other commodity financing advantage. .Copper to the financing of general practice is to use "import letters of credit" financing. .The acceptance date of the credit needs of 90 days or 180 days, which means that enterprises get the goods in 3 months or six months after the funds back to banks. .Therefore, some companies trying to get funding, if the goods immediately after obtaining the copper is thrown on the market, funds can be set emerged. .Calculated according to the credit of the acceptance date, these funds are free to use the 90 days or 180 days. .After the first payment which is equivalent to getting goods in the period between the date of payment, as long as the goods cash, these cash funds would be tantamount to financing. .</ P> <P> "If companies need to continue to use the funds, so long as continue to import, to open letters of credit, sets out a new loan to pay off the old import payments, back to back good on it." Into the .Export business people said. ."In addition, the letter of credit is opened in dollars, while imports enterprises to obtain the loan is RMB, among which there is still room for arbitrage and arbitrage." </ P> <P> According to reports, a .tons of copper by the above practice, the risk-free arbitrage and arbitrage space of about 500 to 1,000 yuan. ."In other words, if the price is higher than domestic prices in London 500-1000 yuan, then, many enterprises are available through the way copper imports to finance." </ P> <P> It is understood that a few years ago, this use of imported copper .method of financing real estate companies have been widely adopted. .A domestic stock companies to reporters, "even if the London price is higher than domestic prices, that is, loss of imports, these real estate companies are willing to do. Because they use the funds to invest to obtain high profits, to fill such a loss. This .is why until 2004, when the two to compare prices against imports, the domestic copper every month, there are still imported. "</ P> <P> land COMMITTEE metals analyst, said:" In the past, the 'financing of copper .'operation of the business, first of all, there will need high-yield investment projects (such as real estate investment, etc.), but is difficult to obtain loans from banks, so they way through import substitution of copper bank loan financing. "</ P> .<P> China price often "underperform" International </ P> <P> the "financing of copper" will eventually be in the domestic market to digest, so is bound to create enormous pressure on the domestic market. .This is the time from the recent weakness in the domestic market price of copper can be appeared. .</ P> <P> this year, there has been such an interesting phenomenon: When a stirring overnight in London copper prices soared dramatically after the copper price trend in China the next day but always Gaokaidizou, seem to have a .only the invisible giant hand and hold the domestic price of copper, so that international investors "very disappointed." .</ P> <P> Chinese New Year holiday period, significantly reduced the international price of copper in inventory under the cooperation of breaking out of a near-perfect market. .Copper prices in London on February 5 closing price of $ 7,110 / ton, to February 12 (domestic trading day before the opening), and its closing price reached $ 7,830 / ton, which just six trading days, .international price of copper rose $ 720, or more than 10%. .</ P> <P> to domestic investors that the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of the domestic copper prices rose dripping fun is bound to meet international market trend, when the domestic price of copper has given those who pledge to do more poured ."cold." .</ P> <P> the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures contract of 0804 before the main dish by external influence to 64,590 yuan / ton opened, the flow limit (4%). .But the daily limit only lasted about 4 minutes, then began to Shanghai copper prices have fallen, the final day close to the lowest closing, or narrowed to 2.48%. .From the position of view, the 8904 contract plunged hand position, long the main signs of the high lighten up significantly. .Look in the rose market is not happening. .</ P> <P> 2 19, Copper & again, force, and to 2.76% ($ 220) and successfully broke through the $ 8,000 gain / ton this important juncture (in the history of copper only 4 times to break through $ 8,000 ., up to $ 8,800), to close at $ 8,190 / ton. .Shanghai copper futures may be the second day again, "Gaokaidizou" given the response. .0805 main contracts to 67,000 yuan / ton opening, but soon the price would have fallen sharply, closing at 66,210 yuan, or narrowed to 0.06%, up 40 yuan higher than the previous day. .</ P> <P> reporters statistics show the time of writing, from the beginning of this year to yesterday, the London copper from $ 6,695 / ton up to $ 8,160 / ton, or about 22%; the same period from 57,800 yuan Shanghai copper / ton up to .66,700 yuan / ton, or about 15%; domestic copper spot prices from 58,950 yuan / ton up to 66,600 yuan / ton, or about 12%. .</ P> <P> at the end of the interview, a futures analyst not to be named told reporters meaningfully, "In fact, I believe that foreign investment banks was very aware of the existence of these financing of copper, because a considerable portion of .they import to us. "" So I said, they 'misunderstood' the part of the Chinese demand! "</ P> <P> Although the financing of copper on the impact of the domestic copper market in the end to be difficult to finalize; but .is certain: the nature of fame and fortune in the capital. .As long as there is room for arbitrage, similar to the story on the copper market is bound to repeat itself in other markets. .</ P> <P> ■ Tips </ P> <P> Why copper? .</ P> <P> According to insiders, copper has two characteristics: </ P> <P> a ton of high unit price, you can reduce the cost of financing through imports; especially in the commodity bull market of recent years, copper .Price from more than 2000 before the U.S. dollars / ton has risen to over 8000 U.S. dollars / ton, turned a nearly 4-fold. .This amount of funding per ton will be more, unlike some agricultural products, import the same quantity, the amount of financing from Queyuanburu copper. .</ P> <P> Second, the strain at home and abroad have good liquidity of the futures market, you can lock the risks involved in importing. .This is why others (such as steel, etc.) can not be used as a financing tool for commodities important reason. .According to reports, the entire financing process, from imports to domestic cash in the process of selling price volatility is one of the biggest risks. .The two have a futures market, as long as the construction of both a reverse position, to hedging, the risk can basically be locked. .</ P>.
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