Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The deposit reserve ratio will increase 0.5% on the stock market?

People's Bank of China, from November 16 to 2010, increase cunkuanlei financial institutions RMB deposit reserve ratio 0.5 percentage points.

Recent monetary policy frequently: October 11, six large banks are differentiated by 2 months the deposit reserve ratio, and the width is 50 basis points; 10-19-the Central Bank announced increases in 1-year deposit and loan interest rate 0.25 percentage, for a period of 3 years for the first time the interest rate; November 9, 1-year commercial release unexpected increases in interest rates once again 5 basis points.

Banks real estate stocks close sharply lower, cautioned for investors in October CPI data before the publication of this Thursday for the interest rate and other concerns of austerity measures the rising market generally expected CPI year-over-year growth rate in October will reach a new high for two years.

The Bank of choice in October economic data forthcoming, October CPI all-time high is a foregone conclusion in the background increases the deposit reserve ratio, analysts point out that this shows the central banks to tighten its monetary policy to discourage domestic inflation and an overheated economy. Central Bank of the move or implied that the October CPI growth rate will exceed 4%.

This Bank real estate stocks and market implications of our exclusive authority for investors market participants to render instant comments:

Guotai Junan Securities Institute Lixunlei:

This adjustment policies more moderately, mainly dealing with inflation expectations, and increases in interest rates, does not cause the hot money surged into further.

Since last 4 trillion investment plan, the excess liquidity problems persist, besides just had a rate hike, the rate-regulated deposit preparation is also effective monetary policy instruments.

A-share market Bank equities relative to its h-share to 20%-30%, this in turn increases the market is not yet on the bank stocks have biggest drive, next stock price remains.

Yingda Securities Institute Lee clouds:

The Central Bank in the CPI release again, before the introduction shows restraint inflation, increase the number of control for metal, on the banks rather negative, but the current valuation of bank stocks, investors do not have to be lower on bank shares too pessimistic. Big thanks to rise too high, this increases reserve rate will enable large short-term shocks, requires some time to digest, but A long-term upward trend of the stock will not change, investors don't have to panic too.

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