If someone asked me on 2011 housing markets want? I will answer: I hope that the housing market in 2011, smooth and orderly trading activity, neither rose or fell, it would be a slight rise.
I hope, is an ideal form of the housing market. Can I get? we can try to look at. Four aspects see 2011 housing prices up.
First, the Government regulation policy on housing prices up.
2011 real estate regulation slogan will still be loud. 日前中共中央召开党外人士座谈会， 胡锦涛在讲话时提到房地产有两处，一是“积极稳妥推进城镇化”;二是“加快保障性住房建设，加强房地产市场调控”。 推进城镇化，主要靠市场，不能靠行政直接干预。 房地产市场调控怎么调?胡锦涛在说到2011年要做的工作时，第一句就说到“要切实加强和改善宏观调控，更加积极稳妥地处理好稳定经济增长、调整经济结构、管理通货膨胀预期的关系”。 It can be said that because of many reasons, the ruling party and Government would want 2011 housing market stability, through improvements in macroeconomic adjustment, do away with downs (detailed opinions may refer to my how the real estate market 2011 regulation "). This determines the 2011 housing prices is not expected to rise sharply. Of course, the subjective intention of the Government and the objective effect is consistent, the need to observe.
Second, the housing market supply and demand variables on housing prices up.
2010 is the global vantage point. Watching both impact developers, buyers. Standard Chartered Bank report that 2011 will greatly increase the supply of housing, lead to a relatively large price decline. This analysis is one-sided.
My view is: on the one hand, because buyers wait for 2010, or sales, or for local Government to pull down the housing prices to push down some price higher buildings not to let their listing. That several factors lead to the supply of the first half of 2011 will be enlarged. But do not affect the housing prices. On the other hand, 2010 by regulation suppression and media intimidation, developers are watching. Some developers consider learning to Wanda, line of business or tourism cultural real estate developers, have slowed the pace of development. Developers of watching this year will result in the second half of next year and the year after, market housing supply reduction. New construction project, supply reduction, will lead to rising housing prices.
Three, ensuring housing on the impact of the rise and fall in housing prices.
In 2010, the low-cost housing, public housing being built a substantial increase. 2011 guarantee room also built 1000 million sets.
The low-cost housing itself on the impact of housing market price to zero. Public rental prices on housing will have little impact, but little effect. Because of the housing market now has required mainly to improve the sexual needs. Public rental press 7 ministries provides maximum limit is 60 square meters. To improve the attractiveness of demand not. Note that if you do not increase the total amount of land to protect the land of big, the substantial reduction in housing land, protect the housing cover too much became a commodity housing prices.
Say a digression: I'm worried about public rental cover too much excess. November 18th, I had a micro-Bo: "the public rental cover? don't blindly. I recommend: the provinces to develop good public rental of local regulations. According to the regulations, approved the specific regional rent standard, of preliminary Declaration (to pay a small fee for successful application fee go down, not successfully returned), and according to the number of declared cases decided to cover public rental. Otherwise there will be a lot of vacant public housing rental. "This proposal would cause the Government attaches importance to the probability is very low. By the Government to adopt a lower probability of it.
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