Good to see the approach of hidden bodies of three more 4200 points.

Over the past month, stocks in many wandering hesitation, investors still exists uncertainty over macroeconomic concerns, prices fall, oil prices and the government can not eliminate the release of a positive signal investor panic. .However, from the external economic environment, policy expectations and market sentiment and other point of view, the haze of depression A shares may be dispersed. .<P> First, as international oil prices, agricultural and other commodity prices come down gradually, the domestic economy is expected to sudden changes in imported inflation, high early on the pessimistic PPI is expected to be a substantial change. .PPI, CPI year on year rate of decline may exceed market expectations. .For the market to worry about "stagflation" problem also will be falsified. .</ P> <P> Second, the current market has been worried about corporate earnings growth was mainly worried about how companies and rising raw material prices to digest the impact of falling gross margins. .According to National Bureau of Statistics, the price index of investment in the first half of this year rose 10%, mainly due to raw material since the second quarter, producer prices rose a greater impact and other factors, raw materials, fuel and power purchase price index rose in June also .rose to 13.5%. .Enterprises face of rising raw material prices, mainly through productivity improvement and price transmission to deal with, in fact, the period of heavy industrialization, labor productivity increased very rapidly, such as Japan in 1961 -1970, the manufacturing labor productivity growth .a rate of 257.3 percent, an average annual increase of 9.9%, a good response to the upward pressure on wages, the current rate of labor productivity in China should not be worse than the Japanese at that time. .Efficiency in production, while raw material prices fell, which will make the level of corporate profits than expected. .</ P> <P> third, is expected to take a tight second half of the central monetary policy and prudent fiscal policy mix, but in the policy focus, rhythm and dynamics will certainly be timely and appropriate adjustments. .From monetary policy perspective, in the second half hike up to the first, and interest rates low probability; to raise the deposit reserve ratio of the space is limited; credit limit control may be slightly relaxed, and appeared to invest a certain tilt; RMB appreciation may be slowing down ., supervision of capital flows, foreign exchange will be strengthened. .Then tend to loose fiscal policy, mainly in tax cuts, increasing subsidies and financial expenditure. .Guide the real estate and the stock market healthy and stable development is also expected to introduce appropriate policies. .</ P> <P> In addition, in August there is a series of guided walking warm market factors: impact of contraction of global liquidity will be weakened, diminished appeal of Chinese assets, A shares will regain a premium growth; the success of the Olympic Games, .organized to inspire the confidence of the Chinese nation, along with high investor sentiment, the balance of trade will be out of fear of repression. .</ P> <P> 8 月 A shares and global stock markets will be synchronized to recover, from the strategic analysis of quantitative indicators, global stock markets proved important in the near future is expected to bottom, A shares of the phenomenon of the double exposure is expected to ease, the index is expected to .pick-up, still maintain the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index 4200 points 6 months predict the point. .</ P> <P> 8 月份 suggested overweight insurance, banking, real estate, petrochemical and commercial, standard machinery, coal and steel. .Which the bank, real estate raised to overweight by the standard will be upgraded to business by the ultra-low coordinate with, with the mechanical upgrade from low to standard, the coal, steel, standard brokerage lowered by the super-distribution. .Construction of combination logic is: the premise of ensuring safety margin, the search for macro adjustment of sensitive sectors is expected, the advantage of prior good performance to make the appropriate realization of the industry, giving up an invalid combination of defensive balance and increase growth. .</ P>.