Yesterday in a listed company in Shenzhen share-trading reform Forum, the experts believe that the reform does not stop, but must first share-trading pilot to engage in a process of reflection. Experts forecast that the second batch of pilot companies may in mid-June, that is, in the first programme successfully passed after the vote of the general meeting of shareholders.
Reform could go through three or four stages
For the share-trading reform time and process, the famous advisory body, now consulting company chairman Cheng Pui-three stages. The first phase of the pilot period. This phase lasts 12-18 months, starting from the first pilot with 3-5 as the first Echelon, depending on market timing 10-20 qualified pilot of listed companies. The stage itself is also a large number of programmes of trial and error phase, there will be a certain practice has proven a better scheme is applied to the next stage.
The second phase of the promotion period. It is expected that from 2006 by 2-3 years, more than half of the listed company, in accordance with the General principles of progressive full circulation in full swing full circulation, regulatory authorities would promote public companies to adopt good method. At the same time, the "new old scratch off" policy of the new unit will directly take full circulation for the first episode.
Third stage-enforcement stage. This is the final complete full circulation are resolved "hardship" and "zch432134" time. Individual game due to the full circulation expectation gap between restructuring is too big a unit, regulatory authorities is likely to announce mandatory measures (such as announced in a certain date from direct full circulation) or weak constraints (such as restricted stock company of refinancing, etc.) on the stock market "full circulation enterprises" to "grace period" zch432134 reorganizes ".
Cheng Pui sensitivity is full circulation pilot start after five years, approximately in 2010, China's stock market will be fully eliminate the phenomenon of "equity", but this does not mean that all non-negotiable shares of stock or circulation.
While China Merchants securities r yellow shunxiang is expected, the share-trading reform will be divided into four phases, namely the initial pilot — expand the pilot results — step-by-step promotion--the enforcement.
To reflect on the first batch of pilot
The experts considered that the share-trading reform pilot policies starting point is good, but the first batch of pilot programmes in lower than expected: pilot company representative is not strong; quality; compensation rate lower than the General market expectations.
It is reported that in fact at present more than 1300 companies more suitable for the first batch of pilot, but prior to the Commission applications for pilot only 20 to 30 families. As one of the Sany heavy industry (information market Forum), 4 does not appear in the price of the turnover, Fund, and other institutions, communication and more easily, so was elected as the first batch of pilot.
Concerned experts pointed out that the introduction of the shareholder structure of pilot, market on pilot programme does not endorse, and even new low; Fund bin distributer "cornerstone" of waver, value investment philosophy be challenged; the expected chaos stock market, stock risk increases. In addition, because the pilot companies choose not to have a representative, the major shareholder of motives suspected, that is caused by the market whether it is intended to improve corporate governance, or want to take advantage of the cash; as well the company less, poor company compensation, a bad unit expulsion of benign unit, undermine the market expected.
China Merchants securities r yellow shunxiang analysis, equity division reform started market is one of the reasons for the dramatic swings, is due to the introduction of the pilot programme, provides a number of uncertainties: share-trading reform uncertain time span; rules of the game (programme) uncertain standard uncertainty; compensation; stock valuation standard uncertainty. While the stock market are most afraid of is uncertain. The second reason is the pilot programme of compensation below-market expectations. Statistics show that at present A-share market price-earnings ratio is greater than 30 times the company still accounted for nearly 60%. Compensation is too low will impact on the market is huge.
Experts believe that must be on the first batch of pilot programmes in the shareholder structure of reflection: how to choose the appropriate pilot whether the development of the company? roughly uniform rules of the game is clearly lowest? compensation standards? do you need a clear timetable for reform? how can managers from action instead of Word to create a good equity division reform?
It is reported that at present the China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Securities Industry Association, stock exchanges and other aspects are reviewed, reflection, and to improve the pilot, were called securities, Fund, experts in the discussion.
Some experts pointed out that it is necessary to ensure the smooth progress of the share-trading reform, management must make the following modification, that is, clear the share-trading reform timetable; pilot companies must be more representative and, in particular, to give priority to select the large blue chip blue chip companies as a pilot to lead the market is expected to go well; launches the appropriate unified solution, relatively clear bottom line, reducing the compensation market expectations into account uncertainty, as to the net assets or other indicators on uniform provisions listed tranche, the lowest tranche; establish compensation and punishment mechanism for the reluctance to full circulation of the companies to have a restrictive measures for the successful implementation of measures to encourage companies, such as considering refinancing qualifications with the company.
In addition, the share-trading reform cannot be "man-push", and to step up the reform of the support measures introduced, as the share-trading reform "escort": a change in State-owned enterprises to net asset-centric evaluation system, the transformation into a stock market value of equity to the center of the assessment methods; speed up compliance funds into the market step increments; controlling the rhythm and reduce market expansion pressure; cancel dividends tax; the establishment of Government stabilization fund, optional machine into a stable market.
The second batch of pilot will soon launch
The experts believe that China's stock market has already paid a huge stock, reform has nowhere to bite.
China Merchants securities r yellow shunxiang analysis, management, the next step of the way, is the pilot first, coordination, step-by-step solution. "Pilot in advance", lessons learned, good pilot, convey positive policy signals, cultivating a relatively stable market expected; "coordination", maintain market stability of related measures; "step-by-step solution", in the reform process on the control of the rhythm, avoid overly concentrated impact of pilot companies market stability
。According to reports, even though many companies are still hesitant, but there are many public companies have to take action. The Commission is actively considering the second batch of pilot companies list. In addition, in the collection based on the comments, the Commission will to reform programmes introduced the implementation details.
Previous big judgment and prediction are most should permit wing, in consultation with the Chairman of the Board, Cheng Pui-sensitive, and other experts predict in yesterday's meeting, the second pilot time in mid-June, that is, in the first pass of shareholders vote after launch; pilot company number 8 to 10.
Cheng Pui-believes that currently rumors of the second batch of pilot list credibility is very low, such as the first batch of pilot losing enterprise in Jilin, Liaoning Chengda, youngor, Guangzhou holdings; 5/17/legend of Aetna, UFIDA, fosun, Han. Because, there are unwritten rules, pilot list cannot be compromised or price changes.
Cheng Pui-prediction, the second batch of pilot may have an influence over the Central Government and the market appeal of listed companies; still no B-shares, h-share company, Sinopec pilot's unlikely; small and medium-sized Board of the company the possibility of a pilot project is also very small. In addition, the programme will not stick, tend to diversify.
How should investors
The experts believe that for secondary market investors, to keep the following points: in the pilot programme brings to market uncertainty is not clear, to avoid market risks; to uphold the value investment philosophy focuses on company fundamentals, internationalization, proceeding from the perspective of full circulation, looking for a reasonable valuation.
Experts suggest that for funds and other institutional investors, not passive participation in full circulation "treasure hunting game," but to actively communicate with the public company, the shareholder through a positive impact, the pilot programme to create new value. To find system investments contingency, the creation of institutional investment of excess profits. The meeting, in consultation with other units. From part of a listed company and its controlling shareholders, Fund, brokerage, venture capital, attended the meeting.
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